Alex Ovechkin is due to start scoring even more
Well, at least on the power play...
A couple weeks ago, I wrote about why the Caps PP was struggling. One thing I discussed was how the PP may soon see better results if Alex Ovechkin’s shooting saw the positive regression it appeared due for. I wanted to revisit that point and add a bit more info.
The reason I want to revisit this is because Ovechkin’s goal-scoring tear to start the season is even more remarkable when you consider he’s currently underachieving on the PP.
Ovechkin has 15 goals so far this season, 20 percent of which (three) have come on the PP. In his career, 36.5 percent of Ovechkin’s 745 goals have come on the PP.
But this isn’t a case of an increase in 5v5 scoring alone skewing the percentages. Ovechkin is also scoring less on the PP. Ovechkin has three PP goals in 19 games, putting him on pace for 13 PP goals in 82 games. Since 2013, Ovechkin hasn’t scored fewer than 17 PP goals in any season in which he’s played in 69 or more nice games.
While Ovechkin’s 5v5 scoring pace may indeed slow down as the season goes on, we could see an increase in his PP scoring to help offset the decline at 5v5.
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Not only is Ovechkin’s raw goal total on the PP down, he’s also off his pace in terms of goals/60.
It would be reasonable to hypothesize, based off the chart above and how disorganized the Caps PP has looked at times this season, that perhaps this is because Ovechkin is getting fewer chances. But ixGoals/60 (individual expected goals per 60) tell a different story.
Not only are Ovi’s PP ixGoals/60 higher than they’ve been since 2017-18, his goals/60 are also underachieving his ixGoals/60 for just the second time in his career and first time since 2009-10
In simpler terms: Ovechkin almost always has more actual goals than expected goals on the power play. This season he has more expected goals than actual goals, suggesting perhaps that he’s been unlucky on the PP this season relative to his career norm.
Ovechkin’s shooting percentage supports the case that some positive regression could be coming for him.
Could Ovechkin shoot 8.3 percent all season on the PP? Sure. But I’d bet against it.
There’s a lot of evidence to suggest that Ovechkin is due for an increase in PP goal production. He’s under-performing his ixGoals/60, which he normally over-performs. His shooting percentage this season is much lower than his career norm. It’s amazing to me that the 36-year-old guy with 15 goals in 19 games may soon see an increase in (PP) goal production.
All stats from Natural Stat Trick