Checking back in on Connor McMichael's rookie season
I am an unabashed Connor McMichael fan. As someone who is drawn to offensively-creative players, McMichael is the Caps rookie I’ve enjoyed watching the most so far this season.
I wrote about the encouraging start to McMichael’s NHL career back in October and wanted to check back in on how his rookie season is going.
You’re reading a Caps newsletter called Pokechecked By Murphy. It’s free. Subscribe here:
Puck possession
McMichael’s puck possession numbers continue to be strong.
His 56.6 percent shot attempt percentage leads all Caps skaters (minimum 125 minutes TOI at 5v5) and ranks 52nd among 602 qualifying skaters, per Natural Stat Trick.
The Caps 63.1 shot attempts per 60 with McMichael on the ice is tops on the team.
On the defensive side of things, McMichael doesn’t shine as bright relative to his teammates, as the Caps allow 48.3 shot attempts per 60 when he’s on the ice, good for ninth on the team.
However, as the viz from Hockey Viz shows below, the Caps are still 10 percent better than league average defensively with McMichael on the ice, so the team’s defense when he’s on the ice isn’t really a cause for concern.
Individual Offense
McMichael has just three goals through his first 23 games. If he wants to carve out a top-six role in the NHL, his production will have to increase over time. There’s reason to believe more offense could be on the way as he continues to adjusts to the speed of the NHL game. It’s also reasonable to assume McMichael has had some bad luck that has kept his offensive totals down.
McMichael has attempted 16.3 shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time. Of the 370 forwards who have skated 125+ minutes at 5v5 this season, this ranks 37th.
xGoals make McMichael look even better, as his 1.1 xGoals/60 ranks 15th among the same group of forwards.
However, his actual goals/60, a nice 0.69, ranks 170th.
I think there’s a bit of bad luck involved here. McMichael’s shooting percentage is 6.5 percent, and there’s nothing in his pedigree or history to suggest he will continue to be a below average shooter. But, there’s likely more than just bad luck to the story. Perhaps it’s an adjustment period to the speed of the NHL game. Maybe McMichael’s goal totals will always underperform his xGoals. But I would bet his production moves closer to his underlying numbers as he gets more time under his belt in the NHL.
Other McMike thoughts
As I said above, I don’t think there’s anything to suggest McMichael is a defensive liability. But, he’s had some noticeable defensive lapses. Fair or not, these are the types of things that can lose a young player ice time. McMichael’s ice time isn’t in danger until the Caps are healthier. But if those types of lapses creep further into his game as the team gets healthier, and he’s still not producing much offensively, he could lose playing time.
McMichael has only drawn one penalty so far this season (he’s taken two). Maybe part of this is, as a rookie, he’s not getting calls he deserves. Regardless, as a player who drives puck possession so well, hopefully he can put his team on the PP more often moving forward.
This is a dude who goes to the net, shown below in this viz of McMichael’s shot locations this season
Conor Sheary and TJ Oshie returned to the Caps lineup on Saturday against Columbus, and McMichael centered them. If this trio can stay healthy, and stay together, good things should come their way. In 41:31 on the ice together, the trio has out-attempted opponents 53-26, outshot them 33-12, but been outscored 0-1.
McMichael’s play this season should earn him a permanent spot in DC even if the team returns to full health. But an uptick in production would help his case. More goals have to come eventually…right?