Connor McMichael has been a bright spot for the Caps
The Caps start to the season: bad! McMichael's start to the season: good!
The first six games of the Spencer Carbery era in DC have not gone according to plan. Even after thumping the Devils on Wednesday night, the Caps have just 5 points and a lousy -10 goal differential. It’s still early. Maybe this team will be lousy all season long. Maybe this is an adjustment period under a new coach. But one thing is certain: Connor McMichael has been a bright spot through the first six games.
We all remember Connor from the six games he played for the Caps last season (and the 68 games the season before). McMichael wasn’t given much of a chance at the NHL level last season, but in the six games he did play, he kinda sucked. Not so this season, though. Through the first six games of the 2023-24 season, McMichael has been pretty, pretty good.
Here’s a look at a couple ways in which McMichael has had a positive impact.
He’s shooting the puck more
During 5v5 play, McMichael is shooting the puck at a higher rate than any other Caps player and at the highest rate of his NHL career.
Small sample size warnings apply to these numbers (and all numbers this early in the season), but the difference between McMichael’s shot frequency last season and this season is drastic. Over a full season, this difference would take McMichael (ballparking here) from the bottom ten percent of the NHL to the top ten percent in shot attempts per 60.
This shot volume is part of the reason McMichael is second on the team behind TJ Oshie in individual xG.
The Caps are controlling play when he’s on the ice
Last season, the Caps had an xGF% of 22.4 percent with McMichael on the ice, a mark so low I am confident it was in the bottom ten of all skaters, without even looking it up. This season has been a different, much better story. The Caps have an xGF% of 57.3 percent with McMichael on the ice. Just like with his shot rate, McMichael leads all Caps skaters in xGF%.
It’s too early to say anything of value about the why behind this change, or if this will even continue. Perhaps it’s deployment, linemates, confidence, maturation, etc. Some of the improvement is regression to the mean, as 22.4 percent is unsustainable. We can dig into the why further down the road if this trend continues.
It’s worth noting that despite this strong underlying play, the Caps have been outscored 4-2 with McMichael on the ice at 5v5. I’d bet on both his on-ce shooting percentage (5.1 percent) and save percentage (87.9) improving.
It’s early in the season. The Caps have been bad. But Connor McMichael has been good so far.
Header Photo: AP-Nick Wass