Ovechkin's PP scoring, Lindgren's play, and other Caps numbers

Playoffs? Let's talk about playoffs.

The Caps recent 6-1-1 streak has lifted their record to 7-4-2, good for third in the Metro division as of the start of games on Monday. The Caps shot attempt percentage of 46.6 percent ranks 26th in the league and their xGF% of 47.3 ranks 24th.

Here are some interesting things that have caught my eye recently

Ovechkin isn’t scoring on the PP

Alex Ovechkin has just one power play goal through 13 games. Even as the Caps’ PP dominance has faded over the last several seasons, Ovechkin still had 24 PP goals over the last two seasons. So, what’s going on here?

In terms of the shots and quality of chances Ovechkin is producing, they are among the best in his career.

(This chart probably has too much info on it, so I cut down on some of the labels. tldr: blue/right axis is ixG/60 and red/left access is iCF/60.)

Ovi’s 2.9 ixG/60 on the PP this season are the third best of his career and best since 2015-16. Shot attempts tell a similar story, as the 45.2 shot attempts/60 he’s firing are the fourth best rate of his career.

The next place to look, especially in a sample of just 13 games of PP time, is shooting percentage. And indeed, despite his best shot generation and quality of chances in a decade, Ovechkin is snakebit on the PP.

I don’t find the answer “it’s just poor shooting luck” all that satisfying. But, as noted above, in a 13 games sample (especially with the data that is publicly available) it’s probably a decent explanation. There could be other contributing factors too, like insufficient puck movement before Ovechkin shots. But, at least some of this is poor shooting luck, so we should see some more Ovi PP goals soon.

Lindgren’s mustache isn’t the only elite thing about him

Charlie Lindgren obviously has elite facial hair. Through three games, he’s also been an elite goalie. He’s been so good, that he’s been the best goalie in the league on a per minute basis, according to Moneypuck’s goals saved above expected.

The caveat here, of course, is that its been three games. A bad game, heck, a bad period, could torpedo these numbers. But what a start to the season for Lindgren.

Other Caps numbers

• At the start of the season, Dom’s model at The Athletic had the Caps at a 6 percent chance to make the playoffs. After their recent winning streak, the Caps are up to 30 percent.

• Beck Malenstyn has drawn 5 minors this season and taken none

• After a slow start, the Caps expected goals numbers are moving in the right direction

That’s all for now. Thanks for reading.