The Caps have a PP problem
Bad zone entries, bad luck, a floating Ovi spot, and injuries have all led to a power play that lacks power
Through the first 11 games, the Caps power play ranks 22nd in the league, converting on 17.5 percent of their opportunities. This is the Caps worst PP conversion rate since 2011-12 when the PP scored on 16.7 percent of its opportunities. To be fair, it has only been 11 games, and the Caps PP, or any PP for that matter, goes through 11 game stretches where it converts at a rate worse than the Caps current 17.5 percent.
A look at the underlying numbers, and how those numbers compare to both the league and to the Caps PP in previous season, would be helpful in better understanding the PP struggles.
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The Caps have attempted 93.5 shot attempts per 60 minutes of PP time, ranking 19th in the league. But this isn’t necessarily cause for alarm bells, as the Caps have not been prolific at generating shots on the PP in the last five seasons, with their highest league rank being 12th, just last season.
(The left y-axis here is for SA/60 and the right y-axis is league rank in SA/60)
Nothing huge jumps out to me here with shot attempts. But all shots are not created equal, especially with the man-advantage. So, let’s take a look at expected goals (xG).
The Caps xG/60 has taken a dip this season and is the lowest it’s been in the last five seasons. The team also generally compares better to the league than they do this season. It’s reasonable to hypothesize that a decrease in shot quality is playing a part in the Caps PP struggles so far this season.
There are also some tactical things that can help explain the struggles. I’ll be keeping an eye on these things in the coming games.
Zone entries
Let me get this part out of the way up front: I don’t think the slingshot is the problem. I’ve looked at the Caps PP entries fairly extensively before, both in 2015 and 2019. The first thing I found was pretty obvious: the Caps PP is far more successful when they enter the offensive zone with control.
But not all types of controlled entries are the same. When they have puck movement through neutral, it leads to more zone time, shots, and goals. This is especially true when they make multiple passes coming up the ice, with the final pass being to a player entering with speed along the right-side boards.
So, slingshot or no slingshot doesn’t necessarily make a big difference. It’s what the Caps do after the slingshot pass. Sometimes Kuznetsov receives the slingshot pass and carries the puck himself into the offensive zone. Other times he passes to a teammate with speed, and that player enters the zone with control. The latter of these is generally the better option.
The Ovi Spot
Here’s Alex Ovechkin’s shooting percentage on the PP over the last several seasons
Yet, his individual xG on the PP are higher this season
Some of the PP struggles can be explained by the fact that Ovechkin’s had some unlucky results. But looking deeper into his shooting location, it’s appears the area on the ice where he’s shooting from is further from the net.
The heat maps below, from Hockey Viz, shows the Caps unblocked shot attempt rate over the last five seasons. This shows a decrease in shots within the left faceoff circle, with an increase from further out towards the point.
Ovechkin’s shot locations from the last five seasons tell a similar story: it appears that Ovechkin is shooting less from within the faceoff circle and shooting more from outside of it:
Yet, Ovi’s ixG/60 (at the bottom of the GIF above) doesn’t really show a reason for concern. But, it’s possible there’s something here that xG isn’t capturing, so it’s worth noting that the Ovi spot seems to be drifting away from the net.
Injuries
This one is pretty obvious. The Caps top unit is without Nick Backstrom and TJ Oshie. With no disrespect to Conor Sheary intended, when Backstrom returns and replaces him on PP1, it will make the unit better.
And is there a better puck pursuer on the team than TJ Oshie? The top unit will be stronger when Oshie returns, thanks to his tireless puck pursuit and elite ability to win those puck battles.
Solutions
So, how does this PP get better? Well, other than waiting for key players to get healthy…
Get those zone entries looking sharper. Teams may no longer allow the Caps to enter at will along the right-side wall like Marcus Johansson used to, but being more creative and active through neutral is a must.
Part of what will make this PP better is simply waiting for Ovechkin’s shooting percentage to regress, at which point his actual goals should climb to a level well above his xG, as they normally are.
But the Ovi spot being pushed further out needs some attention. If the Caps can’t fix the Ovi spot directly due to teams shadowing him, it should open up room for new wrinkles from other players, such as the Ovi-to-Wilson tip play we saw against the Flyers. Or they can more regularly bring back old wrinkles. For example, Conor Sheary scored against Tampa on a wrinkle the Caps first starting using with Jason Chimera (maybe in 2015…?):
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All stats are from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Viz
I'd completely redesign the PP. Seemingly everyone in the league runs the 1-3-1 now, so not only are they practicing it, they're also practicing *against* it. The players replacing Backstrom don't possess the same vision and aren't capable of making his passes, especially across the ice to Ovi in his office. Sticking 1 guy in the left faceoff circle to isolate Gr8 is far easier and more effective now, and makes the resulting 4-on-3 much easier to accomplish successfully for their PK.
I'd seriously look at this:
https://thecoachessite.com/behind-net-powerplay-formation-driven-analytics/
Also, the number of short-handed goals against the Caps' current PP setup should be a hint and a half that something about it needs changing yesterday.