The Caps need more production from Conor Sheary
The team needs more production from basically everyone other than the first line, but today I'm looking at Sheary
The injury bug hasn’t been kind to the Caps this season. Nick Backstrom hasn’t appeared in a game yet. TJ Oshie, Anthony Mantha, and Nic Dowd have all been injured somewhere along the way. Thanks to a strong start from the first line, the Caps have banked 18 points in the first 13 games.
But if the Caps are going to continue to weather the injury storm they are going to need more secondary scoring from, well, just about everyone. The Caps could use scoring from the fourth line, Lars Eller (that goal against Detroit was nice), Connor McMichael, and on.
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When Oshie went down, I wrote about how Daniel Sprong is the player who needed to fill the void. Production-wise, Sprong hasn’t stepped up, as he has just two goals so far this season.
When Mantha went down, this meant a bigger opportunity for Conor Sheary. Brought back on a two-year deal to provide skill and scoring depth to the bottom-six, he’s the exact type of player (although certainly not the only player) that needs to be more productive given all of the injuries. Yet, he has one goal through 13 games and zero at five-on-five.
To try to gain some insight into what’s going on with Sheary, I’m going to take a look at three things:
How often he’s shooting, using shot attempts per 60 minutes of ice time (SA/60)
The quality of these shots, using expected goals (xG/60)
How lucky or unlucky he’s been, using shooting percentage (sh%)
These stats are for 5-on-5 only.
Sheary scored 14 goals in 53 games last season, 13 of which came at even strength. So far this season, Sheary has yet to score at even strength, as his one goal came on the PP.
Could the volume of shots Sheary is generating help explain this?
Sheary’s shooting the puck far less this season than his first season in DC. This is also the lowest rate Sheary has shot over the last five seasons (and the lowest rate of his career).
Sheary’s individual xG (ixG) rate has also fallen off this season.
Sheary has seen a drop off in shot quality and shot quantity. Shooting percentage can help us determine if bad luck has also played a role in his lack of goal scoring.
Shot quantity, shot quality, and shooting luck all help explain Sheary’s lack of production at five-on-five this season.
There’s certainly other context we could add, as Sheary’s individual performance doesn’t exist in a vacuum.
Sheary is playing about a minute less per game on five-on-five this season (12:15 per game vs 11:11). On the flipside, Sheary has seen a significant uptick in minutes since Oshie went down.
The teammates Sheary is playing with, and his chemistry with these teammates, could also be playing a part in his production drop. Last season, the centers Sheary played the most with were Eller (274:00 minutes together at 5v5) and Backstrom (175:39). This season, Sheary has been centered the most by McMichael (57:16) and Eller (46:27).
Eller hasn’t looked like the same player this season. And no disrespect to McMichael, who has exceeded my expectations so far, but Nick Backstrom he isn’t. Given Sheary’s five-on-five shooting percentage of precisely zero percent, and the Caps only shooting 5.6 percent with McMichael on the ice, perhaps we will see increased production from those two soon.
This is not to say Sheary is the only player who needs to step up for the Caps. There’s a long list of guys the Caps need more from. This list is basically everyone but the first line.
But Sheary’s been given an expanded role with all of the injuries and he hasn’t done anything with it. The numbers suggest Sheary hasn’t been as effective this season and that he’s had poor luck. Hopefully both of these things turn around soon, as it would be a big help in helping the Caps continue to survive the injury bug.
All stats from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Viz