This is an appreciation post for the Caps fourth line

The trio of Hagelin-Dowd-Hathaway skates together a lot--and they're pretty good too!

During the 2020-21 NHL regular season, the Caps fourth line of Carl Hagelin-Nic Dowd-Garnet Hathaway skated 521 minutes together at five-on-five. This was the third most minutes any trio in the league skated together last season. For further perspective, the Caps next closest trio of Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie skated 119 minutes together. So yeah, the three dudes on the Caps fourth line are basically inseparable. But more importantly, they’ve been pretty dang effective during their time together. On top of that, they handle a lot of defensive zone responsibilities, freeing up other lines to be deployed in more offensive situations. Let’s appreciate the stability and competence of the Caps fourth line, shall we?

Before we go any further, please consider subscribing to this newsletter and sharing it with your friends. It’s free!

In Dom Luszczyszyn’s Caps season preview on The Athletic, he stated that the Caps fourth line is “one of the league’s best.” According to Dom’s Game Score Value Added (GSVA), the trio centered by Dowd is the third best fourth line in the league.

When we look at shot attempts and expected goals, they tell a very similar story: this Caps fourth line is quite good (note: we care about shot attempts and expected goals because they are generally the best predictor of future goals).

Here’s a look at how they performed as a trio last season:

SA%: shot attempt percentage

xGF%: expected goals for percentage

GF%: goals for percentage

A fourth line being above water in shot attempts, expected goals, and goals is obviously a positive. If the Caps “worst” players are tilting the ice in the Caps favor, it means that the fourth line is a net-positive and isn’t costing the team when they’re on the ice.

The type of minutes the fourth line plays is also noteworthy. The NHL has largely moved away from stocking fourth lines full of guys who can fight and only play six easy minutes per night, but the level of responsibility the Caps fourth line carries is impressive nonetheless. Last season, Nic Dowd started just 15 percent of his shifts with an offensive zone faceoff, compared to 56 percent for Lars Eller, 60 percent for Nick Backstrom, and 75 percent for Evgeny Kuznetsov. The fourth line is trusted more than any other line to handle defensive zone draws, as last season Dowd took 379 D-zone draws, 221 more than the next closest center, Eller with 158.

Small sample caveats apply, but the Caps fourth line is off to a good start again this season, as they’ve posted a 59.1 SA% and a 55.5 xGF%.

And while, yes, this is an appreciation post about the Caps fourth line, there are a couple negatives worth mentioning. The line takes up 6.1 percent of the Caps salary cap. While this may not sound like a lot, Carl Hagelin’s $2.75m cap hit is 3.6 times the league minimum. The Caps currently have some cheapos in net, and some bargains like Conor Sheary and Daniel Sprong, so they can afford to dedicate this amount of cap space to a competent fourth line, but in the future it’ll likely be an area where they need to cut cots.

Second, Nic Dowd takes too many penalties for a fourth line player. While his overall impact on the team is a net-positive, it sure would be nice if he didn’t have a negative penalty differential this season, and also avoid what felt like 3,000 offensive zone penalties last season. As you can see, Dowd's penalty differential was indeed bad in 2020-21

But, let’s not get too far from the overall point here. That being this Caps fourth line skates together as much as any trio in the league, and they are pretty good at it too! So, next time you’re calling for Hagelin to be dealt for cap space, or Dowd to be scratched for Connor McMichael, remember that this fourth line is actually good.

If you enjoyed this newsletter please share it with a friend

*Stats from Natural Stat Trick and Moneypuck