The Caps have an Evgeny Kuznetsov problem. How do they fix it?

Evgeny Kuznetsov has never been known for his defense, And that’s fine. Kuznetsov’s offensive skills are such that he can be a liability on defense but still be a net-positive player for the Caps. Unfortunately, that has not been the case this season. Not only have the Caps suffered defensively with Kuznetsov on the ice this season, they’ve also been worse offensively when he’s been on the ice.

In this post, I want to do two things:

1. Show examples of why the Caps get outshot and out-chanced with Kuzy on the ice

2. Examine a path forward for how the Caps can use Kuzy this season

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All three clips I pulled are from the Vegas game, but you can find similar plays in just about every game. Kuznetsov’s turnovers and inability to win puck battles are two of the reasons why the Caps get clobbered when he’s on the ice.

The first clip is the least egregious and, if it were not part of a larger pattern of sloppy and poor play by Kuznetsov, may not be a huge deal. But alas, it is part of a larger pattern.

In this clip you’ll see the Caps bring the puck around the right side of the D-zone, and then Tom Wilson will chip a puck that’s just a hair out of Kuznetsov’s reach. A player with a higher motor than Kuznetsov would have made an honest effort for this puck. A world class player would have gotten this puck, because players like Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid scoop up any puck sent within a five foot radius of them. Kuznetsov does not get the puck.

Just a little token reach for the puck by Kuznetsov, and then Vegas recovers the loose puck. Again, this is the least egregious. The main problem with this play is Wilson’s pass was off the mark (although I’m not sure why Kuznetsov was still skating back in the direction of the D-zone when the pass started coming his way, so perhaps Kuznetsov’s positioning is what caused the errant pass). But this is part of a pattern in which Kuznetsov shows a lack of desire to receive a pass that isn’t on his tape.

In the next clip, you’ll see two bad plays by Kuznetsov. Each time, Vegas regains possession of the puck.

First, Kuznetsov will get a a breakout pass and, under pressure from Vegas, just kind of lackadaisically flip the puck to neutral. I’ve got time for the argument that this was the safest play Kuznetsov could make. But again, this is part of a larger pattern of plays like this—plays that lack conviction— so it’s hard for me to give him a pass. He had other, less safe, options. And he also had other options that were not as lackadaisical.

Later in the clip, Kuznetsov gets the puck back at the Vegas blue line and has to wait for the Caps to get onside. Kuznetsov doesn’t go for the safe option here, which would have been a dump to the corner. And that’s good! Players with Kuznetsov’s skill shouldn’t make the safe play too often. But what he ends up doing, again, lacks any conviction. He forces a soft, low percentage pass to a teammate, which is easily gobbled up by Vegas.

And last, we’ll see Kuznetsov get completely outworked for a loose puck that was his, if he wanted it. Kuznetsov has positioning, and then lets the Vegas player skate right around him to the loose puck, giving possession back to Vegas.

That puck is Kuznetsov’s if he wants it. But he just lets the Vegas player take that loose puck. That’s the only way to accurately describe that play.

So, what do the Caps do from here? I am assuming, for numerous reasons, that the Caps are stuck with Kuznetsov at least through this season. Here are a few things that may help mitigate the liability Kuznetsov is on the ice.

Do not play Kuznetsov and Ovechkin together

Before Kuznetsov missed the last game due to illness, he had been skating with Alex Ovechkin. I cannot stress this enough: these two should not be allowed anywhere near each other during hockey games.

You know how the San Jose Sharks are an historically bad team this season? The Caps with Kuznetsov and Ovechkin on the ice together are FAR WORSE (like twice as bad) defensively than the 2023-24 Sharks.

Sharks:

And then here’s Kuznetsov and Ovechkin:

Even though it’s only 58 minutes, if you’re twice as bad defensively as the Sharks, the 2023-24 San Jose Sharks, you lose the right to play hockey together.

Give him easier and fewer minutes

During the time Kuznetsov was skating on a different line than Ovechkin, he was playing a lot of tough minutes, because the Caps were feeding the Ovechkin line the easiest minutes. And Nic Dowd being out hurt didn’t help either. So, that explains some of why Kuznetsov’s minutes have been on the tougher side, in terms of opponents faced and zone starts. But regardless of line combos, it’s time to stop feeding Kuznetsov tough minutes.

He’s started 60 shifts in the defensive zone, second most only to Beck Malenstyn among Caps forward. He’s also faced the toughest competition in terms of the opponent forwards he’s faced.

And then there’s the amount of minutes Kuznetsov is playing. Kuznetsov is skating 21:37 per game, fifth among all forward in the league.

It’s time to give Kuznetsov easier and fewer minutes; he’s clearly not up to the task.

Put him with teammates who can cover for his weaknesses and accentuate his strengths

There are two forwards Kuznetsov has played with this season with whom he has an xGoals rate above 50 percent: TJ Oshie and Connor McMichael. The latter is now playing center, so he won’t be playing with Kuznetsov. The underlying numbers when Oshie skates with Kuznetsov are really encouraging. The same numbers when these two aren’t skating together are horrid. Oshie and Kuznetsov need to be reunited asap.

Putting Oshie and Kuznetsov together allows the Caps to 1) keep Strome and Ovechkin together and 2) keep McMichael and Mantha together, so there aren’t any downstream impacts to avoid.

For a third forward on the line? How about Sonny Milano:

Bottom line

Kuznetsov has been bad this season. Watch film from any game, and you’ll see why the Caps are getting outplayed so badly when he’s on the ice. But, for better or worse, the Caps are likely stuck with him through at least this season. So, they need to figure out a way to try to maximize the returns on a player who is a very capable top-six center when on his game. I suggest the following three things:

1. Keep Ovechkin and Kuznetsov away from each other

2. Give Kuznetsov easier and fewer minutes

3. Play Kuznetsov with Oshie.

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